Climate Change as a Catalyst for Security Crises in the Middle East
Climate change acts as a threat multiplier across Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya, accelerating instability into humanitarian collapse. The 2006–2010 Syrian drought displaced 1.5 million people and helped fuel the 2011 civil war; Iraq faces a projected 20-billion-cubic-metre annual water deficit by 2030 driven by upstream dam construction and rising heat; Yemen’s aquifers were failing before its war; and infrastructure neglect turned a 2023 storm in Libya into a dam-collapse catastrophe. Water has been weaponized — from ISIS’s control of the Tabqa Dam to the shutdown of Gaza’s desalination plants. Debate centres on how the UNSC can mandate climate-security integration despite P5 gridlock, what binding transboundary water agreements can hold across the Tigris-Euphrates basin, how to protect water infrastructure during conflict, and how climate finance like the Green Climate Fund can actually reach affected populations.
Sub-questions
- How can the UNSC mandate climate-security integration into its mandates and missions despite the threat of a P5 veto?
- What binding transboundary water agreements could hold across the Tigris-Euphrates basin and other contested watersheds?
- How can water and energy infrastructure be protected from being targeted or weaponized during armed conflict?
- How can climate finance — through instruments like the Green Climate Fund — actually reach the populations bearing the worst of these crises?
Starter Resources
- UN Charter, Chapters VI & VII — the Council’s powers to address threats to peace United Nations, 1945
- S/RES/2417 (Conflict & Hunger) — the Council on conflict-driven food insecurity UNSC, 2018
- IPCC AR6, WGII (Impacts & Adaptation) — climate exposure across the MENA region IPCC, 2022